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Chooch and Cinco Ocho could be good trade chips for the Phillies.
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A win tonight would push the Phillies to .500, but, as things currently stand, we are 5.5 games out of first and 7 games out of the second wild card. Although I want the Phillies to defy the odds and go on a run this year, I think we should heavily consider rebuilding via some trades.
My reasoning is simple: Even if we do manage to make the playoffs, we probably don’t have what it takes to get very far. Making matters worse, we won’t have improved our chances of future success.
I’ve decided to look at top 20 prospects from contending teams and start suggesting potential trades the Phillies should pursue. Obviously, I’m not a scout, and I don’t know very much about these organizations, but I am going to make an honest attempt to have the trades make sense from both sides. At the very least, it could make for some fun reading for fellow fans.
Here’s my first crack at a potential move: Jonathan Papelbon and Carlos Ruiz to the Detroit Tigers for package built around an outfield prospect and a pitching prospect.
Why Detroit might bite?
Although Jose Valverde has been good out of the closer role, a guy like Papelbon would really solidify their bullpen. Meanwhile, Catcher Alex Avila has been pretty anemic this year, so a short term lease on Ruiz, a veteran with playoff experience, could be a plus for this team.
Who are the Prospects?
Potentially, this trade would include 21 year-old AAA right-handed RF Avisail Garcia and 22 year-old A+ right-handed closer Melvin Mercedes.
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Avisail Garcia is called Little Miggy due to his resemblance to teammate
Miguel Cabrera.
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As Detroit’s 3rd ranked prospect, Garcia is considered an elite fielder and has the potential to be a plus power hitter. Despite his young age, he’s seen time with the Tigers this year (with limited success), but he would seem expendable in the right deal for several reasons:
· Nick Castellanos, another 21 year-old AAA OF, is the team’s top prospect, and he seems on course to join the club as their starting LF next year.
· Torii Hunter is blocking RF through the 2014 season.
· The Tigers are flush with OF prospects. Besides Castellanos and Garcia, they have 5 others in their top 11.
Despite being signed in 2008, Mercedes (Detroit’s 17th ranked prospect) is only at A+ because of some major command issues up until this point in his career. However, so far this year, he’s posted a 0.42 ERA, .197 Batting average against and a 0.89 WHIP, while lowering his BB/9 to 1.7 batters per inning (down significantly from last year’s 3.3 mark and a third of his 4.6 career mark). Plus, the guy has a 95-99 mph fastball and 89 mph slider, so there’s a lot of talent there to dream on.
If one or both of these guys aren’t available, Detroit could still make for a great trade partner. As I said, they have seven OF prospects in their top 11, so if they won’t part with either of their top two, perhaps they will let go of 22yo AA left-handed CF Daniel Fields (ranked 7th and possessing a .284 avg/.376 OBP/.494 SLG/.870 OPS slash line) or 23yo AA left-handed LF-RF Tyler Collins (ranked 6th, .233/.344/.465/.809).
As for pitching, they’ve got some decent talent there as well. Although 22 year-old AAA right-handed closer Bruce Rondon (ranked 2nd) didn’t have success during a recent call up this year, he has a 100mph fastball and a good slider, so he’s not going anywhere. Neither, I would imagine, is 19 year-old RHP Jake Thompson (ranked 9th), the team’s top pick in last year’s draft. However, they could part with 22 year-old A RH SP Drew VerHagen (ranked 16th), 23 year-old A RH RP Will Clinard (ranked 18th), or 24 year-old AAA LF RP Matt Hoffman (ranked 14th).
Final Thoughts
Papelbon is a top closer with two more years on his deal, but he won’t do us much good if we are going to be a team in transition. Leveraging him into good prospects and shedding the unnecessary payroll ($12.5 million per year) could be a really positive thing. However, barring injury, he’ll still be immensely tradable next year, so he’s not as pressing a trade commodity as some of our other guys (like Ruiz). As such, it’s important to get something of real value if you’re going to move Papelbon.
In the case of Detroit, that something would be Garcia. If they don’t want to part with him for this type of haul, it may be wise to hold onto Papelbon. Don’t get me wrong, if they would be dumb enough to part with Rondon or would be willing to offer up a big package of prospects led up by the likes of Fields and VerHagen, the deal could still be enticing. Otherwise, it might just be worth kicking the tires on what a solo Ruiz deal could get you. Netting someone like Fields or Collins for him would seem a decent get.
