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He's the greatest second basemen in Phillies history, but trading Chase
Utley might be in the best interest of the team moving forward. |
It’s also a team about to go into a tremendous turnaround, as four starting position players (Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Delmon Young and Michael Young) and one ace (Roy Halladay) are all playing out the last year of their contracts.
Although I would be willing to trade pretty much anyone for the right return (including Cliff Lee and, as I indicated two weeks back, Jonathan Papelbon), I think it is imperative that the team pursue trade possibilities for these five expiring contracts at a minimum. The season is looking like a loss, but by maximizing trade commodities, we might be able to set ourselves up for future success.
Of the five, Utley is clearly the most tradable, because he’s a respected veteran and an offensive asset at a premium position (we’d just need to circumvent his no trade clause, which prohibits unapproved trades to 21 teams). Reports suggest Utley should be back in the lineup by mid-June, and really, that’s just perfect, because it hopefully will given him enough time to come back and convince teams he’s healthy enough to help them in a stretch drive.
I understand the Utley allure, and so I know most fans will be reticent to trade him. I love him too, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely that the Phillies will sign him at the end of the year anyway, so it seems only logical to get value for him, if value is there. If it’s not, obviously we should keep him and then offer him a qualifying offer. Odds are he’ll decline, and then we’ll get a supplemental draft pick between the first and second round next year. And, in the off chance he accepts, we’ll end up keeping him on a one year deal for about $13-14 million, which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
However, I do think there will be value out there, mainly because there are a variety of teams in the hunt who are absolutely woeful at the second base position. I’ve targeted the most likely suitors. Here goes:
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Michael Choice could be part of a youth movement in Philly and provide
right-handed power to a team that desperately needs it. |
At 38-27, Oakland is right in the thick of things in the American League. They are just a game behind the Rangers in the American League West and they are tied with the Yankees for the wild card.
Nevertheless, they’ve been absolutely awful at second base, posting a .679 OPS to go along with 8 RBI and zero home runs. And really, things are even worse than that, because a third of their hits from the position have actually come courtesy of Jed Lowrie, who usually serves as the team’s short stop.
Eric Sogard has logged the bulk of the time at second, and he’s been dreadful (.650 OPS). Adam Rosales (.689 OPS), the guy who mans short when Lowrie plays second, hasn’t been much better. Clearly, Oakland could use another quality player up the middle, and Utley (.814 OPS) would seem an ideal fit.
The guy I’d love to obtain from Oakland is 23-year-old AAA OF Michael Choice, a big righty stick who has mostly played CF in his career, but may profile more as a corner guy in the long term and could make an impact on the team as soon as next year. He’s likely to strike out a lot, but his tremendous power mitigates that, as does his ability to draw walks. Pat Burrell with better defense? One can only hope, because anything approximate to that would make Choice the perfect compliment for Dom Brown in the middle of the order moving forward.
Realistically, Oakland might not part with Choice, but they do have a number of other prospects that could be packaged into an enticing offer. Top prospects Addison Russell and Sonny Gray are probably off limits, but 25-year-old AAA 2B Grant Green should be available, and he offers offensive potential and defensive versatility along the likes of a Ben Zobrist. There’s also 19-year-old A 1b Matt Olson, 19-year-old A 3B Renato Nunez, and a few intriguing low level righty arms in 21-year-old Nolan Sanburn, 21-year-old Michael Ynoa and 20-year-old Raul Alcantara.
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In addition to his devestating stuff, Yordano Ventura has shown great
control in the minors this year. |
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City has an even greater need for second base help than Oakland, as Chris Getz and Elliot Johnson have been utterly woeful this year. Overall, Royals second basemen have a paltry .595 OPS, which is the worst number out of the position by any contending team other than the Nationals and the Orioles (who we’ll get to in a minute). As a result, it should come as no surprise that Utley was linked to the Royals in trade rumors earlier this season.
The Royals are 5.5 games out of first place and 7.5 games out of the wild card, so it’s possible they decide to pack it in this year. However, if they manage to draw a little closer over the next month, they’d be a perfect destination for Utley.
Since the Royals sent outfielder Wil Myers and pitcher Jake Odorizzi to Tampa Bay this summer, I would assume 20-year-old OF prospect Bubba Starling and 21-year-old RHP Kyle Zimmer would be untouchable, but there’s plenty of other talent in the Royals system.
In any trade with KC, the Phillies would likely target Yordano Ventura, a 22-year-old AAA RHP whose plus-plus fastball and devastating curve have inspired comparisons to fellow vertically challenged countryman Pedro Martinez. Ventura had an excellent 3.7:1 strike out to walk ratio this season at AA before being promoted to AAA, and the only real concern revolves around how his shaky changeup will play as a third pitch in the big leagues. If he can make it work (or add another pitch), he could be a topflight starter. If not, he’s got closer written all over him.
The Royals also have two positional prospects with good baseball bloodlines in 17-year-old A SS Adalberto Mondesi (son of Raul) and 20-year-old AA OF Jorge Bonifacio (brother of Emilio). With Roman Quinn and JP Crawford in-house, obtaining Mondesi could make for too many low level shortstops in the Phillies’ system, but he projects as an all-star caliber player, and there’s always room for that kind of talent. Meanwhile, Bonifacio has shown solid slugging potential thus far.
Besides those three, there’s some lower ranked talent as well, including 20-year-old A+ RHP Kyle Smith, 24-year-old OF Brian Fletcher, and 18-year-old A OF Alexis Rivera.
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Chad Bettis projects to be a dominating backend arm in the bullpen.
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Colorado Rockies
Most prognosticators have focused on American League teams when considering likely trade partners for Utley, but Colorado would be smart to kick the tires on him since the production they’ve gotten out of second base (.688 OPS) is downright horrendous.
The Rockies have a long history of failure at the position, having started 13 different opening day second basemen in the past 13 years. The most recent was Josh Rutledge, and, in truth, the 24-year-old may be the organization’s second basemen of the future.
After successfully filling in for an injured Troy Tulowitzki at short last season, Rutledge won the everyday job at second this spring, despite less than 1000 plate appearances in the minors, none of which came above AA. He was demoted after a terrible start to the season, but he’s rebounded nicely at AAA, and would probably benefit from some extended time there this season.
In the meantime, the Rockies are only two games behind in the NL West and 3.5 games behind in the wild card, so they could use a rental player for the stretch run. Utley, who, it should be noted has absolutely raked in Coors Field throughout his career (1.022 OPS), would be a vast improvement over current second basemen D.J. LeMahieu (.676 OPS). But what would the Rockies be willing to part with?
Outfielder David Dahl would be great, but as the 10th pick in last year’s draft, he’s probably untouchable. However, fellow outfield prospects like 23-year-old Kyle Parker or 24-year-old Corey Dickerson could be available. Parker, the club’s first round pick in 2010, has plus power from the right side and has looked solid at every level thus far. Dickerson is not as highly regarded, but he has crushed the ball at every level, including AAA where he currently has a whopping 1.016 OPS. Even accounting for the Colorado atmosphere, that’s pretty nuts.
Although they grabbed Jonathan Gray with the third pick in this year’s draft, Colorado’s farm system is still pretty thin at pitching. Nevertheless, they have a few arms worth inquiring about, two of which – 24-year-old Chad Bettis and 22-year-old Eddie Butler – project as dominating backend bullpen arms. Bettis has two plus pitches (a mid-to-high 90s fastball and biting slider), and this year at AA he’s tallied a strikeout per inning and better than a 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Butler offers a similar repertoire, but the 2012 supplemental pick is two years younger, one level lower, and has displayed less domination thus far.
Parker, Bettis or Butler would make a good centerpiece for any trade, while Dickerson would seem more of a secondary piece. But even if the Rockies were a bit stingy with some of these names, there plenty of other desirable prospects in their system, including 22-year-old AA LHP Tyler Matzek, 20-year-old A SS/3B Rosell Herrera, and 22-year-old A C Tom Murphy.
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A man without a true position, Nick Delmonico possesses a lot of raw power.
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Baltimore Orioles
I doubt Baltimore parts with either 20-year-old Dylan Bundy or 22-year-old Kevin Gausman, two dynamite RHP prospects that were taken with the fourth overall pick in the 2011 and 2012 drafts. Beyond those two, there’s not much in the Oriole’s system that’s all that exciting, especially if you’re hoping for someone who will impact the Phillies quickly.
That said, given Baltimore’s position in the standings (just 3.5 games out of first and 1.5 games out of the AL wildcard) and their woeful second base performance (.583 OPS), there’s certainly a fit here. If Baltimore offered either of the aforementioned names in a desperation play, it would be a no brainer, but even excluding that, the Orioles might be able to package three or four prospects to get Utley.
Any deal would probably start with at least two of Baltimore’s remaining top 5 prospects. Although 21-year-old AAA 2B Jonathan Schoop looks awfully similar to Cesar Hernandez right now, he supposedly profiles to develop more power. Meanwhile, 20-year-old A+ LHP Eduardo Rodriguez projects as a middle rotation guy, but he gets points for being left handed and has shown decent control and slightly better than a 3:1 strikeout to ball ratio. And 20-year-old A+ 1B/2B/3B Nick Delmonico has a lot of raw power potential that would be even more valuable if he manages to stick at second or third.
Beyond that, there’s also 19-year-old A LHP Josh Hader, 23-year-old AA RHP Mike Wright, 21-year-old RHP A Branden Kline, 22-year-old A+ 1B Christian Walker, 23-year-old AAA OF Xavier Avery (who looks like Ben Revere part two), and 21-year-old A+ OF Glynn Davis (Ben Revere part three).
